The Sky is Falling!!

Image Source:  www.shewrites.com
Image Source: http://www.shewrites.com

While reading through various blog posts, I came across a couple that made me stop and think.

Nai and I have had discussions before about what will happen to SL once ‘SL2.0’ is released.

You can read his blog post here for his thoughts on the matter.

He and I have also talked about the fact that the number of people using SL seems to be dropping.

Or, to be more exact, the number of ‘concurrent’ users seems to be declining.

I also came across a blog post by Nalates Urriah about that very thing.

Read Nalates blog post here about concurrency.

It seems pretty clear that concurrency is, in fact, in a decline.

Daniel Voyager has a post about the decline in number of regions in SL.

So with the number of concurrent users and the number of regions in decline, is this the end of SL?

Who knows?

And since pretty much everything being said about ‘SL2.0’ is speculation, it’s hard to make any kind of accurate prediction.

I, personally, am not surprised that the number of concurrent users and number of regions has declined.

Rose-colored glasses aside, the economy in the US still has not completely recovered, and non-essential expenses (like paying for land in SL) tend to be the first things to get cut.

Everyone is speculating about what will happen once ‘SL2.0’ is released.

That it will cause a mass exodus of people from SL.

It might.

And?

That is the nature of the world.

Things change.

Things end.

Things begin.

I have no idea what ‘SL2.0’ will be like.

Will it be better than SL?

I don’t know.

Will I be able to move all my stuff from SL into it?

I doubt it.

Will it cause LL to close/shut down SL?

I don’t know.  I don’t think even LL will know the answer to that until ‘SL2.0’ is released.

Will LL keep SL open even after releasing ‘SL2.0’?

I think they will – as long as it’s making money for them.  Once it isn’t, SL will disappear.

It’s no different than other games, MMORPG’s, and the like.

LL is running a business.  If SL is making money, it will continue.  If it isn’t, it will close.  That’s just good business sense.

Will people be upset?

Yes, of course.  I will be.  I have a ton of stuff I’ve spent money on over the years.

But I also realize that if LL decided to close SL tomorrow, there isn’t a blessed thing I could do about it.

And if it did, I would simply move on to another grid, most likely.

Change isn’t the end of the world. 😛

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8 thoughts on “The Sky is Falling!!

  1. Interesting reads on concurrent user trends and number of region trends. And the hint that the “voxel engine” being SL2’s primary new mesh-based build-tool….well I’d never heard of voxel. 1) Is IT truly at the center of SL2? and 2) WTF is it? How does it work? I watched one YouTube tutorial on voxel vehicles. Looks all encompassing. A different way of thinking for sure. And I was a bit shocked to hear them repeatedly use the terms “sequencer” and “events”. Two terms at the very core of the Artiste.

    So it got me to thinking…if/when SL2 leaks its creation tools for objects, scripts, clothing, etc…will there be a mad panic-rush to be among the 1st to re-produce SL content into SL2? I will surely be caught up in the madness. Already thinking how I would rebuild the Artiste in a new world in which I, to-date,have no inkling as to how it would/could be done.

    Interesting how that one blogger blogs the answer to SL2’s success will be tying it into Google Search. Good be a key panacea for success.

    I wonder if the number of Virtual-World-able people is a relative fixed-constant based upon some type of formulaic personality derivative. You either are or are not a person born with a VW-gene that would allow you to ‘stick’ into a VW lifestyle beyond a curious look-see. I think SL1 will be around for ages as long as: 1) it remains profitable and 2) the transfer and/or translation of resources from SL1 to SL2 is prevented. Reproducing the interconnected social-fabric that exists in SL1 will be a challenge for sure if their main focus is on the “new technical”. I, for one, will probably stay in SL1 until they pry my cold dead hands from the mouse and keyboard. Ugh, what a visual.

    What may result from a slowly shrinking SL1 is a trimming of the fluff and more concentrated stuff. Fewer empty places but more crowded places. Those providing an honest and proper mix of avatar-offerings in product and services will gain in concentration, as I am seeing now, with a diminishing valley of ego-builds and ego-services.

    Will there be new untapped, unforeseen areas of commerce offered?

    Will there be new offerings that enable VW-assisted education? Will it lend itself to the world education systems?

    And I would be amiss if i didn’t raise the question of “Sex in SL2”. Will it advance it to a new level of experience, intensity, and pleasure. If so it could drive a much needed initial core adoption. Tactile sensors? Non-FDA approved tactile body-suits? What part if any will Oculus Rift play in SL2’s sensual offerings?

    These are my musings. What’s yours?

    1. Well, I’ve never heard of ‘voxels,’ so until I do a bit of research, I don’t know on that one. As for a mad content rush to recreate SL1 stuff, lordy, I hope not.
      Isn’t that the point of making an ‘SL2.0’? To learn from past mistakes and do things not only differently, but hopefully better?
      I think there are different personalities and yes, some are better suited to VR. I have friends who can’t sit still for more than 30 minutes without having to do something. The thought of sitting for hours in front of a game is a complete anathema to them.
      I think the transfer/translation of resources is going to be a key issue for most people. I don’t mind trying another virtual world, but having to outfit another avatar and spend all that $ doing so? Probably not.
      As for sex in ‘SL2.0’, who knows? Some have already suggested not allowing it, which seems silly to me. If there are people, there will be sex. That simple. How will it be different? Again, who knows? No tactile body suits for me, thank you. 😀

    1. That’s a big question for me as well. But what if the animations in ‘SL2.0’ are a million times better? What if there was a system where you could dance in RL and somehow translate that into ‘SL2.0’?
      I’ll just have to wait and see. 🙂

  2. Creating your own animations with a simple affordable (wearable?) system could be a dance-animation game-changer. Supposedly you can do it now using some game system, XBOX-360 or WII…I think its a crude but feasible solution if i recall correctly.

    If I am an animation-seller, does it behoove me to use some sort of translation device to convert my current SL1 animations to SL2 and, let’s say, offer a free or only 1L per animation conversion fee? If i have 1,000, anims…i get all SL2 versions for only 1,000 L plus say the cost of having to buy 1 of their new SL2 anims at say 350L ? I dunno. I’d go for it.

    I suspect there will be shoes and hair and skin and stuff. It will look better i suspect. But if you are a content creator with 1,000 designs. Do you start over and wait for 1000 new creative inspirations while competition translates/converts and hits market on Day X while you know your 1000 unique inspirations will won’t arrive until Day X+150 ? Or ? and lose market share?

    I will venture to say there will be stuff that looks and acts like our stuff already. It there is a physics engine like a new HAVOC, where stuff does stuff based on science…if they have something akin to particles…if they have vehicles…if you will be able to rez and derez stuff and build new content…if there are dance clubs….then I suspect there won’t be a whole lot of reinventing the wheels that already turn.

    1. I’ve heard of the Xbox/Wii option, but hadn’t explored it. Although I have wondered if it would be a decent option for making poses?
      I expect whatever the new platform is to be more advanced than what we have currently in SL. Some creators will embrace it, some won’t. I think some things (like mesh objects) will likely translate (via another paid upload, probably). Others won’t.

  3. It’s currently 11:15 am Zeddy Standard Time and there are 29,677 people logged into Second Life with an increase of around 150 – 200 people logging in every ten minutes at the moment, I expect the number of people logged in to be around 53,000 in a few hours. I have a handy population meter on my work platform which has been tracking the number of people online since November 2012, it shows a high of 65,855 and a low of 14,054 (there must have been a major outage somewhere that day because it’s not usually lower than about 25,000). When I came to SL in 2007 the entire grid would crash every Sunday afternoon (ZST) when there was over 23,000 people on at the same time.

    People come and go a lot in SL, every so often there’s a mention in the news about it and there’s an influx people who come to see what all the fuss is about (I don’t know if this may skew the results in any way), most don’t stay (not as much Fr33 Sext as they thought), people leave for a variety of reasons. Personally I know people who’ve been caught by their spouse doing the naughty, people who’ve met their true love in sl and moved totally to rl together, people who have died and people who have just lost interest.

    SL2.0 is not a reason for people to quit SL right now, if that’s the excuse people give then they would have quit anyway. Speculating about what SL2.0 will be like is pretty pointless but things we do know are that it will be a totally different platform to what we have now, sculpts will not be a factor but mesh will definitely be the main building tool so we can expect it to be more focused on the professional builder with the skills and finances to purchase and use high end 3d design software. We will NOT be able to transfer items from SL, it would be like taking your things from Farmville to World of Warcraft, they may be able to transfer our names though (see Jessica Firestormlady’s damage reduction interview with the Linden chap after she started the panic a while back). SL will remain SL as long as it remains financially viable for Linden Labs, it will cease to be some day and I accept that all my lovely things I have in SL don’t really exist, they are not tangible, they are not real, they are virtual and when that day comes I will cry. I refuse to dwell on the fact that everything has a beginning and end but I do accept it.

    Blogs like this one and other social media services may play a part in the decline in numbers of people actually using SL, they’ve made their friends and it’s easier to chat via blogs or facebook or twitter or whatever so they chat from their tablets or phones, there’s no real need to log into resource hungry SL for them. It is basically a fancy chat program after all.

    Don’t listen to Chicken Little, enjoy SL with the safe knowledge that one day there will be no trace of you left, SL2.0 will be long gone and not even a memory if you or anything you know will be left.

    1. Leave it to you to see the bright side, Zed. -.- Seriously, though, I never really thought of SL as a chat program, but you’re right. People come to SL for connections. Connecting through FB or Twitter on your phone is certainly easier than logging into SL and all the stuff it requires.
      Which makes me wonder if all the hype about Oculus Rift will turn out to be false. If people would rather log in through the phone or chat in other ways, why on earth would they be interested in OR?

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